Revisiting Link Prediction: a data perspective
Abstract
Link prediction, a fundamental task on graphs, has proven indispensable in various applications, e.g., friend recommendation, protein analysis, and drug interaction prediction. However, since datasets span a multitude of domains, they could have distinct underlying mechanisms of link formation. Evidence in existing literature underscores the absence of a universally best algorithm suitable for all datasets. In this paper, we endeavor to explore principles of link prediction across diverse datasets from a data-centric perspective. We recognize three fundamental factors critical to link prediction: local structural proximity, global structural proximity, and feature proximity. We then unearth relationships among those factors where (i) global structural proximity only shows effectiveness when local structural proximity is deficient. (ii) The incompatibility can be found between feature and structural proximity. Such incompatibility leads to GNNs for Link Prediction (GNN4LP) consistently underperforming on edges where the feature proximity factor dominates. Inspired by these new insights from a data perspective, we offer practical instruction for GNN4LP model design and guidelines for selecting appropriate benchmark datasets for more comprehensive evaluations.
Benchmark Results
Tested on 2 datasets 4 baseline values reported too low
Tables show presented results in global context (best 3 papers + GCN + MLP).
OGB
| # | Model | Hits@20 ↑ | Paper |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELGNN | 0.9777
±0.0037 | |
| 2 | GIDN | 0.9542 | |
| 3 | AGDN | 0.9538
±0.0094 | |
| 12 | NCNC | 0.8411
±0.0367 best reported | best today: PageRank Bandits for Link Prediction (NeurIPS 2024) Difference within reported uncertainty; not counted as underperformance. |
| 16 | BUDDY | 0.7851
±0.0136 best reported | best at pub: Graph Neural Networks for Link Prediction with Subgraph Sketching (ICLR 2022) best today: Using Random Noise Equivariantly to Boost Graph Neural Networks Universally (2025) |
| 20 | SAGE | 0.6719
±0.0118 best reported | best at pub: Pairwise Learning for Neural Link Prediction (2021) best today: Link Prediction with Untrained Message Passing Layers (2024) Difference within reported uncertainty; not counted as underperformance. |
| 24 | GCN | 0.4990
±0.0723 | prev best: Neo-GNNs: Neighborhood Overlap-aware Graph Neural Networks for Link Prediction (NeurIPS 2022) best today: Link Prediction with Untrained Message Passing Layers (2024) Improvement within reported uncertainty; not highlighted. |
| 38 | GraphSAGE | 0.5390
±0.0474 | |
| 47 | RA | 0.4401 best reported | best at pub: Graph Neural Networks for Link Prediction with Subgraph Sketching (ICLR 2022) best today: Link Prediction with Untrained Message Passing Layers (2024) |
| 50 | AA | 0.3975 best reported | best at pub: Labeling Trick: A Theory of Using Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Node Representation Learning (NeurIPS 2020) best today: Link Prediction with Untrained Message Passing Layers (2024) |
| 51 | CN | 0.3869 best reported | best at pub: Labeling Trick: A Theory of Using Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Node Representation Learning (NeurIPS 2020) best today: Link Prediction with Untrained Message Passing Layers (2024) |
| 52 | Katz | 0.3869 best reported | best today: Link Prediction with Untrained Message Passing Layers (2024) |
| 73 | NeoGNN | 0.2095
±0.0603 | This paper |
| 90 | PPR | 0.0719 | This paper |
| 93 | FH | 0.0474 | This paper |
| # | Model | Hits@100 ↑ | Paper |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OGB Leader | 0.6524
±0.0150 | |
| 2 | PRB | 0.6347
±0.0175 | |
| 3 | LPFormer | 0.6332
±0.0063 | |
| 4 | NCNC | 0.6264
±0.0079 | This paper |
| 9 | RA | 0.5324 best reported | best at pub: Pairwise Learning for Neural Link Prediction (2021) |
| 14 | SAGE | 0.5013
±0.0055 best reported | best at pub: Asymmetric Learning for Graph Neural Network based Link Prediction (2023) |
| 15 | BUDDY | 0.4985
±0.0020 best reported | best at pub: Graph Neural Networks for Link Prediction with Subgraph Sketching (ICLR 2022) best today: Using Random Noise Equivariantly to Boost Graph Neural Networks Universally (2025) Difference within reported uncertainty; not counted as underperformance. |
| 20 | NeoGNN | 0.4845
±0.0101 | This paper |
| 23 | MLP | 0.4600 best reported | best at pub: OGB (NeurIPS 2020) best today: Efficient Link Prediction via GNN Layers Induced by Negative Sampling (2023) Difference within reported uncertainty; not counted as underperformance. |
| 39 | AA | 0.3245 | This paper |
| 45 | GCN | 0.2957
±0.0290 | prev best: Formatting Instructions for ICLR 2021 Conference Submissions (2020) |
| 49 | CN | 0.2765 | This paper |
| 51 | Katz | 0.2765 | This paper |
| 63 | GraphSAGE | 0.1655
±0.0240 | |
| 71 | PPR | 0.0497 | This paper |
